Daily Kos

The 6 EVs of AR

by jimrice

Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:10:55 PM PDT

I don't know much about Arkansas. But polls there seem extremely close-- and Clinton is still recovering. Will he be able to campaign in the next couple weeks? Is this state as close as it seems? In a number of scenarios, AR changes a tie or a small Bush win to a Kerry presidency. What have the Kerry campaign and the 527s got going there? What would help? This looks like a possible steal.

Polling links below the fold.

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  •  Clinton will do some campaigning (none / 0)

    Clinton will be able to do some limited campaigning, probably in the last week.  I would suspect that he just might mosey on down to Arkansas and take it away from Bush for us.  Go get 'em, Big Dog!  

    Voting rights are our most important rights because all the other ones depend on them

    by markusd on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:16:39 PM PDT

  •  Clinton Would Be Good (none / 0)

    Clinton would be a huge help here, but he might be even more useful elsewhere. Who knows. No point in sending Kerry there, maybe Edwards could make a few trips.

    Winning Arkansas isn't critical, but it would be nice.

    by Nylon on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:18:16 PM PDT

    •  I think I'd like to see.... (none / 0)

      ....Edwards go from NC to VA to WV to OH, then back again, and again, until the election. Right now there are polls in NC and VA at 50-47 Bush, with WV 48-47 Bush, and OH a tossup as has been documented on this site. Put Kerry in FL, CO, AZ, NV, NM, WI, MN.

      Just my .02.

      Every good Christian should line up and kick Jerry Falwell's ass. - Barry Goldwater, 1981

      by Doug in SF on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:31:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well, (none / 0)

    Polls showed Arkansas being relatively close in 2000, but Bush pulled it out with a comfortable margin.

    Gore distanced himself from Clinton and that may have hurt his chances in Arkansas (and other southern states).  On the other hand I've heard from a few native people from Arkansas that Clinton isn't all that popular because "a lot of people think he disgraced the state".  They still are voting Kerry, but caution about being too optimistic about Clinton.  Some Clinton ads probably help.  Getting Clark out there probably helps a little.

    Arkansas is essentially (much like Loisiana) a Democratic state that supports local candidates (but is leary of national figures that might be out of touch in their view).  

    I guess what I'm saying is that despite local dem success and close polling that this will still be a hard pickup.

    by timdauwalter on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:18:31 PM PDT

  •  Lincoln reverse coattails (none / 0)

    The best advocate for a Kerry presidency is not Bill Clinton.  It will be Senator Blanche Lincoln.  She is very, very popular and running for re-election.  The last poll I saw she was 20 plus points up on her competition.  Reverse coattails are what Kerry-Edwards need in Arkansas (and Louisiana).  
    A combination Edwards/Lincoln speech..maybe 2 would swing the deal.

    Republicans are not a national party anymore.

    by jalapeno on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:21:41 PM PDT

  •  I dont think DNC, KE04 or 527s are in AR (none / 0)

    ACT is in the following 'red states': NV, AZ, MO, OH, FL, NH, WV

    from what I have seen their is no ad buying going on in AR currently by the party or the campaign.

    I dont know about MoveOn, but I dont think so.

    its true some polls show it close, but it is likely that the internal polls dont show this. Otherwise KE would spend the money thats going into CO in AR.

    by California Dreamer on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:21:45 PM PDT

    •  AR could win it. (none / 0)

      In one scenario that I have run...

      AR wins it for us.

      According to WSJ...

      http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

      AR is the SECOND CLOSEST, (behind FL).

      Let's assume that FL gets "stolen" again...and OH goes Red (which I actually don't think will happen, but it could)

      With AR and NH (which is extremely likely...kerry +5) as pickup's from 2000,

      Kerry wins ...270 to 268

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      by circuithead on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:29:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  assume KE know more than Zogby (none / 0)

        especially zogby online

        they have made the call...MO and AR are out, CO and NV are in as potential pickups.

        Dems are only looking at 5 red states now: NV, CO, NH, OH, FL

        we can only assume they arent morons and have better data...and they cant be 'everywhere'. Sure the math looks good for AR Gorestates+NH+AR, but they must know something we dont know

        by California Dreamer on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:52:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Don't make sense (none / 0)

      Seems to me that Arkansas (my birth state) has a better shot at going for Kerry than MO. Plus they can use the big Clinton Gun in Arkansas and not MO. I think they should take at least some of the effort going into MO and put it in AR. But then again, they have it all mapped out, so maybe I should just shut up.

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      by mole333 on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:37:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Look... (none / 0)

        in the weird calculus of EVs... AR = FL = OH... Bush cannot afford to lose any one of these three states and still win the election without picking off a Gore state.. with NH moved over to the Kerry camp an AR pick up would be as big as OH or FL.. force Bush to defend AR just as much as he has to defend FL and OH...

        "Publicity is justly commended as a remedy for social and industrial diseases. Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants" Justice Louis Brandeis

        by mlangner on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:50:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I think that (none / 0)

    AR is very important. If we take it from Bush, the chimp's in deep shit.

    This business will get out of control...

    by Omar on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:35:18 PM PDT

  •  I Still Hold Out Hope (none / 0)

    As a native of Arkansas and resident of Fayetteville (the most progressive and Democratic part of the state), I believe it's still possible to pick up the EV for Kerry. As someone recently stated, I live on an island of blue in a sea of red here near the University of Arkansas campus where Kerry/Edwards signs outnumber B/C by about 20 to 1.

    There are many of us who still favor Clinton and view him as a positive element. He would be helpful. Wes Clark, always a large draw here, is a big favorite and Senator Edwards is a positive also.

    I wouldn't waste time or resources on Benton County (home of Wal-Mart and wild-eyed Baptist Egomaniacal Ministers for Bush) or the delta regions; however, if resources were available and deemed ready to be deployed, I'd recommend the areas most favorable to Kerry/Edwards were I think there's still some 'undecideds' waiting for a reason to vote Kerry/Edwards. These areas include Fayetteville, Hot Springs and Little Rock.

    I just ran into one of these 'undecideds' (I didn't think they still existed), an attorney, and he asked me who he thought he should vote for because he was, frankly, confused and too busy to keep up with politics. After a 20 minute discussion, he said I'd convinced him. I have no way of knowing, but that gives hope that some ground is still left to be gained.

    by BlueDogPress on Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 03:40:03 PM PDT

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