I'm not too incredibly worried about this latest poll, as it's the first poll that I've seen where McCain is ahead after Obama has clinched the nomination.  That being said, it does show that we can't take this election for granted, either.  The winning conditions are there for the Democrats to take the White House, but we need a better reason to get voters to vote for Obama other than running against Bush's third term.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/...

Obama's support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives.

OBAMA NEEDS TO WORK ON BASE

"Conservatives were supposed to be the bigger problem for McCain," Zogby said. "Obama still has work to do on his base. At this point McCain seems to be doing a better job with his."

There has been a lot of handwringing around here about polls.  Let me tell you Obama is polling well giving the amount of negativity directed towards him.

Obama is leading polls nationally because the times have changed.  McCain has consolidated his base and yet despite a 10 percent consolidation advantage still trails.

Cross-posted from DMIBlog

Today the Drum Major Institute (DMI -- where I'm director of research) released its first annual Survey on the Middle Class and Public Policy.  The nationwide poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, aimed to learn how those Americans who see themselves as middle class (the vast majority of us, it turns out) think about the direction of the country, public policy ideas that could improve the nation, and their relationship with their own elected representatives. What we found were middle-class households filled with "fearful families": Americans worried about the present, pessimistic about the future, but not nearly so divided on issues of public policy as the typical media reports of a country divided by red and blue might lead us to believe. In fact, there’s broad bipartisan support for a range of progressive policies.

Okay, here's another, I know, I know diary.
But I think there's enough tea leaves out there to suggest Mark Warner will be Obama's VP and make everyone very happy.

Of course, I'm just pulling this out of my you know where (as Markos would say).

We all know the rumors that Obama really always wanted Warner, but Warner turned Obama down.  I just don't think you turn down the next President of the United States.

Let's look at the tea leaves:

Down from 50-41 a month ago.  Among 1,547 likely voters.  So, it's a big sample of likely voters.

The good news is that Obama's still ahead despite McCain keeping him on the defensive nearly every day for a month, and he's now winning independents.  The bad news is that the lead has slipped a bit, and Obama is doing worse among white men and older voters, perhaps reflecting increased foreign policy concerns.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

Note the poll's start date is July 16, which explains how Edwards is able to score 4%.

Richardson, Bayh, Webb, Sebelius, Kaine, and Clark also score in the single digits.

Methodology is phone interviews and online, but given the fixed sample should be reasonably accurate with +/- 3 MOE.

Interesting stuff--don't know that it weighs at all on Obama's decision, but since it seems decidedly not to be Clinton, at least Biden would be the next most popular.

Not everyone is as naive as the Straussians assume. There is beginning to be lots of speculation concerning the Russo-Georgian conflict that erupted a little more than a week ago. HuffingtonPost.com had a particularly interesting editorial piece of speculation Sunday that neither focused on oil, the territorial dispute itself nor the possibility of war profiteering by crony capitalists, as per usual of late. (Notice how speculation becomes the normative way to process the news when government becomes secretive?)

Nevertheless, as a way of establishing the context, the article by investigative journalist Joe Lauria, Did McCain Help Bait Russia Into Georgia? hearkened to Eisenhower's warning about the "Military Industrial Complex" and the Cold War.

John McCain and Barack Obama are perfectly tied in Ohio, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling (August 12-14, 2008 survey of 950 likely General Election voters)

Obama had led in PPP’s June and July polls of the state. It’s 45-45 with 10% undecided.

It seems that 17% of democrats are voting for McCain, and 8% are undecided. Most of them white and older in age. I guess Ohio would be a state that the Clintons need to go to to stump for Obama.

Here are the details.

After watching the Saddleback event last night, and observing the polling trends at FiveThirtyEight.com, it's apparent the idiocracy which we see every four years when we elect a president is alive and well.  The red state/blue state divide, the insane group called evangelical Christians who have destroyed Presidential politics with their craven obsession over abortion and the Supreme Court, the willingness of the Republican Party to do anything to win - lie, cheat, or steal, is all back in place.  

Barack Obama is failing right now.  He's going to have do something very soon to change the dynamic or the press will smell blood and it will 2004 all over again.  I didn't like what I saw last night.  Obama was impressive, intelligent and thoughtful.  But the press and the group in the church lapped up McCain's black and white, simpleton answers.  

I haven't liked what I've seen over the past few weeks from Obama.   Whatever happened to "Not this time!"?  It's happening "this time".  Same as it ever was.

A new poll is out on Ohio from PPP.

Tied

45-45 Obama-Mccain

This is going to be a close one folks!

As I cross path with folks I know or acquaintances, they often express their worry about Al Franken's campaign.  I have been telling them that everything is going fine.  Al is running the exact right kind of race.  He's got a massive volunteer operation, he's running a grassroots campaign, he's raising ****loads of money and he's the right kind of personality to take on Norm Coleman, i.e., a DFLer with some personality.

Reactions vary from "I hope you're rights" to eye rolls to rants about everything they perceive Al to be doing wrong.  I think DFLers expect Al to be leading by 15% like Amy Klobuchar was by this time two years ago.  That's just unrealistic.  Amy was running for an open seat, Al is battling an incumbent Republican Senator with all the advantages that come with it.

So what exactly do I mean when I say Al is running the right kind of campaign?

The new Franklin & Marshall poll shows a 44-36% lead for Obama. Solid numbers.

But what is downright fascinating is the source of Mac's weakness: apparently independent voters are somewhat disgusted by him:

http://www.wgal.com/...

http://www.fandm.edu/...

Every once in a while, I turn the TV to Fox News and Bill O'Reilly, not for information, obviously, but to see how long I can stand it before I am

a) yelling at the TV

b) cursing

c) changing the station

I surfed by his website for similar reasons, and noticed there is a poll "measuring", and no doubt in a fair and balanced manner, what grade people would give to Barack Obama's campaign.  The results are to be used in a later broadcast.  

I gave Barack an A.  Perhaps many more Kossacks should drop by, and do the same thing.  Let's see if Bill-O will report a poll that leans heavily in favor of Senator Obama.

Messing with Bill-O

Obama leads McCain by eight points, 44 percent to 36 percent among registered voters, and by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters.

Poll director Terry Madonna said that the survey shows that Obama hasn't been able to pull away despite signs it should be a big Democratic year in Pennsylvania.

"He's on third base, but so far he can't seem to find a way to get home," Madonna said. "Look at the underlying trends. The economy is a huge issue. Bush's ratings are terrible. But too many voters are concerned about Obama's experience, and don't yet have enough confidence in his ability to lead."

When asked whether, regardless of how they plan to vote in November, they would be concerned if Obama were elected president, 51 percent said yes.

http://www.philly.com/...

In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4. In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent. McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent. Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds.  

http://www.surveyusa.com/...

I've seen lots of polls for who you favor as Obama's Veep, but they've mostly been preceded with a huge endorsement of someone.  It seems the same short list keeps getting floated, but its more and more conservative type picks.  I wish Kos would put up a poll on the frontpage, but let me give it a shot.  Who is this communities favorite?  Sorry if i leave someone off the list.  

Since I didn't see a diary anywhere I thought I'd let everyone know about a new Alaskan poll that has Obama up by 5%: 45%-40%.  I'm at work so I can't really comment on it except for how it looks really good for Obama way up North.  Here's the link of the poll: http://www.haysresearch.com/...

Got to go!!!

Sure, we all know about evil 527s -- the hybridized political action committees that spend unlimited amounts of money from undisclosed donors to promote or, more typically, to tear down political candidates. Think: Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Simply recalling that name and the outfit's despicable-but-effective  attacks against a war-hero candidate is all that's needed to understand what 527s are and why they are bad.

As a proud liberal in good standing, I've always been uncomfortable, at best, with 527s and their ilk -- unaccountable, unfettered actors more often use such legal fig leaves to degrade civic life and mislead the public mind than to do any good.

But this morning comes an astute TPM correspondentwho makes me think twice about 527s, undermining my reflexive liberal instinct against them. In this age of Karl Rove tactics, and afflicted by a mainstream media whose stunning malpractice  and chronic establishment bias is more threatening to our democracy than Osama bin Laden, a candidate like Sen. Obama needs all the help he can get. Is there any cavalry to for him to call, or has he asked them to disarm and dismount, just when he needs them the most?