Daily Kos

Email: rashomon55@yahoo.com

CNN "Poll of Polls" - Sorry, McCain. Try Again.

Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 11:52:07 AM PDT

CNN has just released their new "poll of polls" summary, the first since last Friday.  The news?  Obama by four...up from Obama by three last time.

Good topline summary:

After several days of tough new ads from McCain’s campaign, the presumptive Democratic nominee holds a 4-point advantage over the presumptive Republican nominee in CNN's average of national polls, up slightly from the 3-point margin he held on Friday.

NY Times Editorial: McCain drags up O.J.

Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 02:48:05 PM PDT

They couldn't even wait for tomorrow's paper.  Key Graph from the website:

It also — and we wish this were coincidence, but we doubt it — conjurs up another loaded racial image.

The phrase dealing the race card "from the bottom of the deck" entered the national lexicon during the O.J. Simpson saga. Robert Shapiro, one of Mr. Simpson’s lawyers, famously declared of himself, Johnny Cochran and the rest of the Simpson defense team, "Not only did we play the race card, we dealt it from the bottom of the deck."

Media Manufacture 101

Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 02:46:31 PM PDT

Here's a classic example of Media Manufacture: a story that is reported wrong (i.e. the incident never happened), gets picked up by various op-ed blowhards, and becomes "fact".

Yesterday, the pool reporter following Obama reported the following:

He left to check in on other classes, thanking teachers and students. He then came back to the room where the children were drawing pictures. Stooping over a table, he autographed a number of drawings. The children were delighted; one girl held her picture to her cheek after Obama signed it.

As he left, a boy tried to give him a fist bump. Obama said no.
"If I start that ..." his voice trailed off.

http://thepage.time.com/...

Oh no! Obama doesn't want to fist-bump a little boy!  You know where this is going...

CNN: Obama in "statistical dead heat" ...leading by 5 points

Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 03:14:18 PM PDT

If you needed any more evidence that the MSM is in desperate need of a close race, I present CNN's writeup of their most recent poll.  Check out this spin:

New CNN Poll: Obama, McCain in a statistical dead heat

With the dust having finally settled after the prolonged Democratic presidential primary, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a statistical dead heat in the race for the White House.

With just over four months remaining until voters weigh in at the polls, the new survey out Tuesday indicates Obama holds a narrow 5-point advantage among registered voters nationwide over the Arizona senator, 50 percent to 45 percent. That represents little change from a similar poll one month ago, when the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee held a 46-43 percent edge over McCain.

No spin there!  More after the break.

WaPo: Obama shows "political courage" on Gas Tax

Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 06:10:39 PM PDT

This is a welcome editorial in the Washington Post tomorrow.  They don't mince words.

Key graph:

We have to agree with Sen. Barack Obama, the only candidate who has refused to play this game. "It's not an idea to get you through the summer," he said. "It's an idea to get them through an election." His opponents no doubt hope that Mr. Obama's stand will prove to be political suicide. We think it qualifies as political courage.

I thought that the Gas Tax issue allowed Obama to pivot back to his strength: running against the Washington insiders who only offer the same old BS.  Perhaps it's starting to work.

Some excerpts from the editorial (and link) after the jump.

Arsonist burns Barack Obama sign in yard

Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 07:00:26 PM PDT

Don't know what to make of this.  I suppose this happens under the radar often, but it's still disappointing.  Update:  This is from Lufkin, Texas.

A political sign endorsing Presidential candidate Barack Obama was set on fire in the front yard of a residence sometime late Wednesday night in the 100 block of Tower Lane, according to Lufkin Police Department spokesman Lt. David Young. The owner of the home, Will Stambaugh, found the remnants of the political statement when he went to retrieve the newspaper the next morning.

"Whoever they were, they just torched the thing right in front of my house." Stambaugh said. "I called the police when I found it the next morning and they came out and noted it. I don't know if it was directed towards me or Obama."

No other signs of vandalism were found at the scene.

http://www.lufkindailynews.com/...

AP Poll:  Obama up big; writeup implies people who dislike him are racist.

Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:31:44 PM PDT

Good news from an AP poll just out...Obama up 10 nationally.  But the write-up is worth a read.

THE RACE: The presidential race for Democrats nationally

_

THE NUMBERS

Barack Obama, 49 percent

Hillary Rodham Clinton, 39 percent

Yep. She goes there.

Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 09:54:35 AM PDT

You knew it was coming.  It's shaping up to be a bad media day for Hillary Clinton, what with the "sniper" story video going big time.  So...time for a little manufactured controversy.  So much for "not touching" the Rev. Wright story.

CBS/NYTimes National Poll: 70% Approved of Obama's Speech

Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 02:42:22 PM PDT

I'm sure there will be more polling, but this is pretty big news if it holds up.

A new national poll released Friday showed voters who heard or read about Barack Obama’s speech on his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and race relations, broadly approved of it.

Seven in 10 said he did a good job talking about race relations and as many said he did a good job explaining his relationship with Reverend Wright, according to a CBS News poll conducted Thursday.

Full text and additional key elements after the jump.

Poll

What's your opinion of Obama's Speech?

94%2725 votes
3%104 votes
0%15 votes
0%11 votes
0%21 votes

| 2876 votes | Vote | Results

Pelosi: Clinton Camp sez McCain is better CinC than Obama

Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 11:22:02 AM PDT

The backlash is in full force now.  Clinton thought she could get away with sly comments that McCain and she have met the "Commander-in-Chief" threshold and Obama hasn't...without triggering a pushback from what passes for the Democratic Party leadership these days.

Wrong.

AP: Clinton Fingerprints on Plagiarism Flap

Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 04:55:09 PM PDT

The Clinton camp seemed to be getting decent mileage out of the "Obama plagiarism" controversy.  All over the blogs, hitting the Cable nets, and so on...all the classic media storm elements.  It's a pretty clean way to push the "Obama's just another politician" meme, which the campaign has been trying to do for some time.  So, far, some success.

And then, as the Clinton camp is wont to do, they pushed too hard.

Kucinich throws Iowa support to Obama

Tue Jan 01, 2008 at 12:50:50 PM PDT

Yes, I know, not supposed to post simple diaries...but this is interesting.  Kucinich is apparently making the "deal" with Obama this year, much as he did in 2004 with Edwards.

This is definitely significant, as Kucinich's supporters may very well have added several points to Edwards in 2004 after the second-choice recalculation.

The plot thickens...

(full text after jump)

I hate winnerism

Thu Oct 11, 2007 at 02:12:25 PM PDT

As you may have noticed, we're getting deep into the Presidential primary season.  Candidates are working hard and voters are starting to pay close attention and decide which candidate will make the best President.

Many voters have different criteria for what they are looking for in a candidate, but folks find out about and get passionate about their choice.  More casual voters aren't as invested, but they look for a candidate who's going to work on the issues important to them, whether it's the economy, the war in Iraq, or something else.  They may not make a decision for a while, and are certainly influenced by the horserace coverage, but eventually they'll pick someone they like and trust.

Poll

Ever voted for the winner in a Democratic Primary?

15%12 votes
16%13 votes
11%9 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
2%2 votes
38%30 votes
12%10 votes
1%1 votes
1%1 votes

| 78 votes | Vote | Results

OMG! Journalism? At the Associated Press?

Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 12:49:27 PM PDT

I can't believe it.  Someone must have slipped something in my coffee this morning.  I actually just read a "fact checking" article on the AP, by Nedra Pickler, of all people, and it's...actually good journalism!  What is the world coming to?

Be still, my beating pollster heart!

Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 03:34:18 PM PDT

I haven't seen this mentioned in the last few days, so I thought I'd break the exciting news to everyone.  Apologies if it's been diaried...I couldn't help myself.  I just love disecting polling trends too much!

Hillary is Inevitable: You will be assimilated.

Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 01:45:19 PM PDT

Mark Penn has an inside-baseball polling memo out today responding to the Obama campaign's memo last week on the horserace positioning.  The David Plouffe memo from Obama basically said that Obama's in good shape, don't worry about the polls yet.

Mark Penn's response?  Hillary is Inevitable.  And I've got 40 million polls to prove it.  Logical, I suppose.  But is this really a great argument?

Poll

Is Hillary really inevitable?

8%29 votes
42%145 votes
14%50 votes
4%16 votes
30%103 votes

| 343 votes | Vote | Results

Dinner with Obama? 8000 contributions in 24 hours

Thu Jun 07, 2007 at 04:53:32 PM PDT

Seems like this idea is working pretty well so far.  Although, in fairness, I'm not sure I want it to work TOO well.  It'll reduce my odds of winning!

I'm not sure how the numbers match up with other fundraising drives...but I do know that Obama had 50,000 online contributors in Q1, so this seems pretty substantial.

ARG: Clinton leads in every early state

Tue May 29, 2007 at 11:24:19 AM PDT

ARG is out with some new early state polls...and they're good news for Clinton.  And bad news for Obama (less so for Edwards).  Count me in as someone who doesn't buy some of these numbers...but who knows.

Clinton continues to look like the clear front-runner...

UPDATED:  Not so big lead in SC for Clinton.  Sorry, I took the numbers off of Political Wire without double checking.


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